Wholesale electricity prices in the United States are on track to average $52 per megawatthour (MWh) in 2026, 11% more than in 2025, with prices in the PJM region up 41%, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its October Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). The agency also expects homes that heat with electricity to pay about 4% more this winter, while those using natural gas or propane pay less.

The 11% figure is an average across the 11 wholesale hubs EIA tracks, and the agency said most hubs are near 2025 levels. EIA said some regions saw higher wholesale prices this year “mainly due to weather events, such as winter storm Fern and high summer temperatures particularly in July.” It forecast that PJM prices this year will be 41% above 2025.

Other markets moved the other way. The Northwest Mid-Columbia region saw the largest decline, with prices 23% below 2025 levels, according to the outlook. EIA said prices in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) market reached historic lows this year and forecast a 19% rise to $30/MWh in 2027. Across all 11 hubs, the agency expects the average to ease to $49/MWh in 2027, with prices in PJM, the New York Independent System Operator and ISO New England falling by between 7% and 14%.

Retail prices and demand

On the retail side, the STEO tables put the average U.S. residential electricity price at 18.2 cents per kilowatthour (kWh) in 2026, up from 17.3 cents in 2025, rising to 18.7 cents in 2027. EIA noted that retail prices reflect costs beyond wholesale power, “such as transmission and distribution upgrades, capacity market auction prices in some regions, among other expenses.”

Demand rose with the heat. “Overall, electricity consumption in 3Q26 increased by 4% across the country compared with the same quarter last year,” EIA wrote, with the largest increases in the residential (6%) and commercial (5%) sectors. For 2027, the agency forecasts commercial-sector demand, “which includes data centers,” to grow 2.8% and industrial demand to rise 2.7%, while residential demand falls slightly, according to its press release.

EIA’s generation forecast shows natural gas supplying 40% of U.S. electricity in 2026 and 39% in 2027. Solar’s share rises from 8% this year to 9% next year and wind’s from 11% to 12%, while coal slips from 16% to 15% and nuclear holds at 18%. The agency also expects coal generation this winter to be lower than last winter, citing milder expected weather, planned coal plant retirements and low natural gas prices.

Winter heating bills

The STEO was released on October 6 alongside EIA’s 2026–27 Winter Fuels Outlook. For the November-to-March heating season, EIA expects bills for homes that heat mainly with electricity, more than 40% of U.S. households, to rise 4% on average, driven by higher electricity prices. Households heating with natural gas are expected to spend 9% less and propane users 3% less. Heating oil users, about 3% of households and mostly in the Northeast, face a 21% increase in spending, with prices averaging 34% higher, partly offset by warmer forecast temperatures.

EIA expects national average winter temperatures to be similar to last winter, with the Northeast warmer and “much colder temperatures in the West, following an unusually warm winter last year.” Natural gas inventories are expected to enter the heating season 2% above the previous five-year average. “Relatively high natural gas inventories entering the winter season provide a cushion for heating demand,” EIA Administrator Tristan Abbey said. The agency forecasts the Henry Hub spot price at $3.48 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2026 and $3.16/MMBtu in 2027.

Why it matters

For utilities, large power buyers and regulators, the outlook points to 2026 wholesale price pressure that is concentrated in a few regions rather than spread across the country. EIA linked those regional increases mainly to weather events, and it expects prices in PJM, New York and New England to come down in 2027.

For retail customers the picture is mixed. Residential electricity prices keep climbing in EIA’s forecast, and electric-heat households are, along with heating oil users, the groups expected to pay more this winter. Commercial demand growth, which EIA notes includes data centers, is forecast to continue through 2027.

What to watch

EIA’s next Short-Term Energy Outlook is scheduled for November 10, 2026. Distillate supply is the tightest part of the winter picture. EIA said East Coast distillate inventories were 32% below the five-year seasonal average in September and are forecast to stay 20% to 30% below average through the winter. In the oil market, the agency forecasts Brent crude at $105 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 and $84 in 2027. It expects crude production shut-ins tied to Middle East disruptions to fall from 4.5 million barrels per day in 4Q26 to 2.7 million barrels per day in 1Q27 as Strait of Hormuz transits and alternative routes expand.

The caveats

All figures are forecasts. EIA’s winter expenditure estimates depend on its temperature assumptions, and the agency published percentage changes rather than dollar amounts for household heating costs. The wholesale averages cover the 11 hubs EIA tracks and do not describe every market or every customer’s bill.