The World Trade Organization (WTO) has raised its forecast for growth in world merchandise trade volume this year to 3.9%, from 1.9% in March, saying on October 8 that import demand tied to artificial intelligence (AI) investment has outweighed the drag from the Middle East conflict and the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The upgrade comes in the October update of the WTO’s Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report. WTO economists now expect goods trade volume to grow 4.1% in 2027, up from 2.6% in the previous forecast. Services moved the other way: growth in commercial services trade volume for 2026 was cut to 3.3% from 4.8% as the conflict disrupted travel and transport, before an expected rebound to 6.4% in 2027. World real gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to grow 2.6% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027 at market exchange rates.

In March the WTO had published a range of outcomes, from 1.4% goods trade growth under a high energy price scenario to 2.4% under a strong-AI scenario. The report says both scenarios materialized in the first half of the year, “but the influence of AI ended up being stronger than expected.” Merchandise trade volume grew 3.5% in the first half.

AI hardware carries the numbers

Trade in AI-enabling goods, which the WTO defines as raw materials, intermediate inputs and products that support AI development and production, such as semiconductors and servers, rose 67% year on year in value terms in the first half of 2026. That category accounted for 47% of the growth in world merchandise trade value and lifted its share of world merchandise trade to 14.8%, up from 7% to 8% between 2016 and 2023.

The trade is highly concentrated. The 10 largest traders accounted for about 85% of AI-enabling goods exports and 80% of imports in 2025, the report says, with East and Southeast Asian economies supplying the goods and North America driving demand. The WTO cites estimates that global AI infrastructure spending will rise at least 30% in 2026, and market analyst projections of a further 10% to 20% increase in AI capital expenditure in 2027.

Energy, fertilizer and shipping disruption

Using importers’ customs data, the WTO estimates that crude oil exports from the Middle East fell roughly 24% year on year in the first half, while global crude exports fell only about 6% as the United States, Norway and Brazil raised shipments. Middle East exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) fell around 47%, against a global decline of about 1%. The Gulf region supplied 24.8% of global nitrogenous fertilizer exports in 2024; after shipments through the strait came to a near standstill, urea prices more than doubled to around $850 per tonne in April before falling back to about $400 in July.

Brent crude peaked at $138 a barrel on April 8, fell to around $75 after the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding in June, and has since climbed back to around $100, according to the report.

Regional shipping has been reshuffled. Container throughput at Jebel Ali fell around 60% year on year in the first half and 90% in the second quarter, while volumes rose around 40% at Sohar and 15% at Salalah in Oman and almost 79% at Jeddah’s South Container Terminal. About 500,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) moved across the Gulf by road and rail between March and August. By the end of June, Asia spot rates stood at around $6,200 to $8,000 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU) to North America and $4,900 to $6,500 to Europe and the Mediterranean, citing Freightos data, and the WTO said trans-Pacific rates remained high in September.

“The numbers reflect trade resilience in action,” WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said. “Nevertheless, some have felt the shock more than others, and not everyone can access emerging opportunities like AI.”

Why it matters

The forecast describes a split market. Asia is projected to post 9.9% merchandise export growth in 2026 and North America 5.7%, while Europe is flat at -0.1% and Middle East exports fall 17.2%. On the import side, North America is forecast at 1.4% and Europe at 0.5%, against a 15.4% contraction in the Middle East. The WTO noted that North American imports fell 10.6% year on year in the first quarter, mostly because of 2025 frontloading ahead of higher US tariffs, before recovering to 5.3% growth in the second quarter.

Prices also matter. The US dollar value of world merchandise trade rose 15% year on year in the first half, against 3.5% volume growth, one of the largest gaps in recent years, which the WTO attributes to higher prices for fuels and for electronic components used in data centers.

The caveats

The WTO names two main risks: the wedge between crude oil and refined product prices, which is eroding household purchasing power, and a slowdown or reversal in AI investment, which would hit trade hard because of its high import content. The 2027 forecasts assume the effects of the Middle East conflict do not extend into next year; the report warns that if that premise is wrong, growth could diverge substantially from the forecast. The forecasts are WTO Secretariat estimates and do not necessarily reflect the views of WTO members.