Global air cargo demand rose 7.7% year on year in September, up from 4.4% growth in August, with every carrier region recording gains, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said on October 29. Fuel costs rose far faster than freight rates: jet fuel prices were 103.4% higher than a year earlier, while cargo yields were up 25.9%.

Demand is measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK). International CTK rose 8.6%. Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK), grew 2.7%, or 3.3% on international routes, so the global cargo load factor rose 2.2 percentage points to 47.9%. For the first nine months of the year, CTK was up 5.0% and capacity up 1.7%, according to IATA’s September market analysis.

“Air cargo demand rose 7.7% year-on-year in September, with growth across all regions,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist. “The challenge is cost. Jet fuel prices have more than doubled compared with a year ago, and yields have not kept pace.”

North America leads, Middle East lags

IATA groups airlines by country of registration, not by where cargo starts or ends. On that basis:

  • North American carriers posted the strongest growth, with demand up 11.8% and capacity up 0.8%, lifting their load factor 4.3 points to 43.9%. International demand rose 15.3%.
  • Asia-Pacific carriers grew demand 8.6% on capacity growth of 4.9%, for a load factor of 50.7%. Asia-Pacific and North American airlines together accounted for 77.0% of total growth.
  • European carriers grew demand 4.5% while cutting capacity 1.6%, raising their load factor 3.2 points to 54.6%.
  • Latin American and Caribbean carriers grew demand 6.7% and capacity 7.6%; the load factor fell 0.3 points to 34.3%.
  • Middle Eastern carriers grew demand 3.8%, the weakest of any region, against capacity growth of 7.0%; the load factor fell 1.4 points to 44.0%. Year to date, their demand is still down 5.3%.
  • African carriers grew demand 4.7% while reducing capacity 1.2%, for a load factor of 47.0%.

Trans-Pacific technology freight

On trade lanes, which count every airline flying a corridor, Asia–North America traffic rose 17.0%, extending its double-digit expansion to five months. IATA said industry reporting linked that demand to semiconductors, servers and other artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure equipment, while tighter low-value import rules weighed on e-commerce. Thomsen said AI-related shipments “helped drive another month of double-digit growth across the Pacific.”

Within Asia, traffic rose 10.2%, Europe–North America 9.3% and Europe–Asia 6.0%. Corridors through the Middle East contracted for a seventh month: Middle East–Asia fell 10.2% and Europe–Middle East fell 18.0%. IATA said the declines narrowed but that the region’s role as a connecting market was still impaired amid geopolitical instability.

The trans-Pacific pattern matches what the World Trade Organization (WTO) reported in its October outlook, where trade in AI-enabling goods such as semiconductors and servers rose 67% in value in the first half of 2026 and accounted for 47% of global merchandise trade growth.

Fuel bill outruns yields

Jet fuel averaged $184.5 per barrel in September, up 17.5% from August, according to the market analysis. IATA attributed the increase mainly to crude: Persian Gulf supply disruptions and pressure on shipping routes and energy infrastructure kept supply tight, and Dated Brent reached $116.8 per barrel. Refining added a second layer, with reduced Russian exports tightening middle-distillate supply and the jet fuel crack spread widening to $67.7 per barrel.

Cargo yields rose 2.0% from August, their second consecutive monthly increase, as higher load factors supported rates, but the gain was far smaller than the rise in fuel prices.

Why it matters

For shippers, the data show tightening space on the busiest lanes. Demand grew almost three times as fast as capacity industry-wide, and North American carriers added very little lift against double-digit traffic growth. IATA said higher load factors supported rates in September, but carriers are absorbing a fuel bill that has more than doubled in a year while yields rose about a quarter.

Demand indicators remain firm. The global manufacturing output purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose 0.7 points to 53.8 and the new export orders index rose 0.5 points to 51.9, both their highest in more than five years, according to the market analysis. CPB World Trade Monitor data showed August trade volumes up 0.6% on the month and 6.9% year on year, IATA said.

The caveats

IATA’s regional results reflect where airlines are registered, not regional traffic, and historical figures are subject to revision; with the September data, August’s African international growth was revised from 3.0% to a 1.1% decline. IATA also warned that further disruption to crude supply and refined-product flows could add to airline costs.